2019 Oscar Predictions from an LGBTQ Perspective

LGBTQ film critic Jonathan Roche predicts that, while there are many ‘prestige’ films in the running, this may be a year for popular films.

Best picture

COULD WIN: It’s a La La Land/Moonlight makers’ rematch: Damien Chazelle’s First Man vs. Barry Jenkins’ If Beale Street Could Talk; a retro story like The Front Runner or BlackkKlansman; or a big box office hit like Mary Poppins Returns or Black Panther. SHOULD WIN: Roma, unless it’s in the ‘Foreign Language’ category; the small but excellent Leave No Trace, equally fine The Favourite; or brilliant Ballad of Buster Scruggs. WILL WIN: A Star Is Born, because Bradley Cooper is a member of the Oscar club and Lady Gaga is an international megastar.

Best director

COULD WIN: Again it could be Jenkins vs. Chazelle; or Adam McKay (Vice), Ryan Coogler (Black Panther), Debra Granik (Leave No Trace), Steve McQueen (Widows) or even Bo Burnham (Eighth Grade). SHOULD WIN: Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite) for his most accessible film yet; Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman), who’s never received a nod; or Joel Edgerton (Boy Erased). WILL WIN: Alfonso Cuaron for Roma, though the Academy might punish the film’s nearly straight-to-Netflix release … or Bradley Cooper for A Star is Born.

Best Actor

COULD WIN: Lucas Hedges, earnest in Boy Erased; Rami Malek rocking Bohemian Rhapsody; full-career awards for Robert Redford (The Old Man & the Gun) or Clint Eastwood (The Mule); Willem Dafoe’s agonized Van Gogh in At Eternity’s Gate, Hugh Jackman’s flawed politico in The Front Runner; Ethan Hawke’s unstable priest in First Reformed or John David Washington living up to Denzel’s legacy in BlacKkKlansman. SHOULD WIN: Ben Foster as a damaged veteran in Without a Trace, Joaquin Phoenix in You Were Never Really Here or Don’t Worry He Won’t Get Far on Foot; and Rupert Everett’s spot-on Oscar Wilde in The Happy Prince. WILL WIN: Christian Bale’s transformation for Vice … or once again Bradley Cooper in A Star Is Born sweep.

Best actress

COULD WIN: frumpy Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) controlled Glenn Close (The Wife); Emily Blunt filling legendary shoes (Mary Poppins Returns) young Thomasin McKenzie (Leave No Trace); Viola Davis (Widows); Nicole Kidman (Destroyer); Rachel Weisz or Emma Stone (The Favourite); Felicity Jones as RGB (On The Basis of Sex); Amy Adams (Vice); tender Kiki Layne (If Beale Street Could Talk); reserved Emma Thompson (The Children Act); fierce Saoirse Ronan (Mary, Queen of Scots). SHOULD WIN: Olivia Colman’s comic, terrifying, pitiful Queen Anne in The Favourite; Yalitza Aparicio’s (Roma), and astounding Toni Collette (Hereditary). WILL WIN: Lady Gaga for A Star Is Born: it’s right there in the title.

Best Foreign

COULD WIN: The touching Shoplifters; the most original Border; the beautifully layered Cakemaker; German thriller The Guilty; drug epic Birds of Passage, or Pawel Pawlikowski’s Cold War. SHOULD WIN: Smoldering thriller Burning or the complete knock-out Capernaum. WILL WIN: If Roma is denied a shot at Best Picture, it’s an absolute lock. Otherwise Never Look Away is a wonderful and rapturous film.      

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